Strengthening Bridging and Linking Social Capital through Sports Activities in Post-Crisis Societies: Future-Oriented Scenarios for Iraq by 2050

Document Type : Research/Original/Regular

Authors

Department of Sport Management, Faculty of Sports Sciences, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

Abstract

This study aims to design future-oriented scenarios for enhancing bridging and linking social capital through sports management in post-crisis societies, using Iraq as a case study until 2050. A mixed qualitative approach with futures studies orientation was employed. Data were collected via in-depth semi-structured interviews with 28 diverse experts and two focus group workshops. Thematic analysis and scenario planning were applied, identifying two critical uncertainty axes (socio-political cohesion and economic diversification). Four scenarios were constructed and validated through expert workshops. A total of eight main themes emerged, with structural weakness of social capital (dominance of bonding ties and severe deficiency in bridging and linking) as the dominant theme. Positive drivers included youth demographics, digital media/e-sports, and international collaborations. Key uncertainties consisted of sectarian divides, oil budget volatility, and infrastructure gaps. Four scenarios were generated: “Gardens of Baghdad” (desirable), “Calm Rivers” (most probable, ~50%), “Divided Desert” (undesirable), and “Sandstorm” (wild collapse). Proposed strategies were resilient (local academies, e-sports, revenue fund), adaptive (ethnic quotas, transparency), and directive (league commercialization, national inclusion program). Without a deliberate strengthening of bridging and linking social capital, sports management in post-crisis Iraq remains trapped in instability and rent-seeking. Leveraging youth, digital platforms, and international ties, combined with the proposed strategies, enables transition to the desirable scenario, positioning sports as a key tool for sustainable social cohesion.

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References

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Social Capital Management
Volume 13, Issue 2
July 2026
Pages 103-116

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