Objective The study investigated bridging and linking social capital as a strategic driver of sustainable economic diversification in sports management of oil-dependent countries, focusing on Iraq until 2050.

Method A mixed qualitative futures studies approach was used. Data were gathered through semi-structured interviews with 28 experts (diverse in ethnicity, geography, and organization) and two focus group workshops. Thematic analysis and scenario planning were conducted, identifying two uncertainty axes (socio-political cohesion and economic diversification). Four scenarios were developed and validated via expert workshops.

Findings Eight themes were extracted, with structural weakness of social capital as the main barrier to diversification (predominance of bonding and deficiency in bridging/linking). Positive drivers included youth population, digital media/e-sports, and international partnerships. Uncertainties involved oil price volatility, corruption, and infrastructure deficits. Four scenarios emerged: “Gardens of Baghdad” (desirable, 4-5% non-oil GDP share from sports), “Calm Rivers” (most probable, ~50%), “Divided Desert” (undesirable), and “Sandstorm” (collapse). Strategies were resilient (e-sports, revenue fund), adaptive (ethnic quotas, transparency), and directive (league commercialization, national inclusion, integration into Vision 2050).

Conclusion Without reinforcing bridging and linking social capital, sports in oil-dependent countries like Iraq remains rent-dependent and unable to drive diversification. By harnessing youth, digital platforms, and partnerships, and implementing the proposed strategies, Iraq can achieve a significant non-oil GDP contribution from sports, supporting long-term economic resilience.